2025 opened with President Donald Trump imposing a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US, marking another major escalation in his trade policy overhaul. As the year unfolds, it appears set to mirror the unpredictability of last year, where the only certainty was uncertainty.

With 25% tariffs now imposed on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubled supplementary tariff on Chinese imports, the prospect of a 25% levy on EU imports has also been tabled, further intensifying global trade tensions.

Amid these challenges, there is however a glimmer of hope for UK firms. A recent meeting between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Donald Trump saw discussions on a potential US-UK trade deal, which could help shield the UK from the direct impact of global trade tensions.

Despite concerns over trade protectionism and intensifying economic headwinds, the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook highlights that nearly half of the world’s leading economists expect global trade volumes to increase this year. 

That being said, 56% of surveyed chief economists also suggest the global economy will come under pressure in 2025, with 93% predicting that supply chain restructuring will cause durable changes to trade patterns over the next three years.

Much of this restructuring, according to Aramex UK, one of the UK’s international logistics providers, is due to the unpredictability of the global landscape, with imposed tariffs and ongoing tensions such as those in the Red Sea likely to remain a consistent theme over the remainder of the year.

Although recent Houthi statements indicate that the group will halt attacks on most vessels passing through the Red Sea, they have still vowed to continue targeting Israeli ships, along with any vessels that have direct or indirect ties to Israel, such as the US and the UK.

With ongoing turbulence and fresh challenges likely to hinder global trade routes for the foreseeable, Aramex UK believes that supply chain resilience and flexible logistics strategies will be standout factors in determining business success in the year ahead, as they face mounting pressures from economic and geopolitical volatility on both a domestic and global front.

Umar Butt, CEO of the UK and Europe at Aramex said: “The ability to weather disruptions is crucial for success this year, and effective logistics planning will be a key component in achieving that.

“Although some factors will remain beyond their control, businesses can still take proactive steps to mitigate or even avoid the impact of potential disruptions, whether that be because of geopolitical issues, climate change, trade tariffs or potential retaliations.

“Adaptability and resilience are key. Those that invest in flexible, future-proofed logistics solutions will be best positioned to navigate disruptions. To facilitate this, multimodal solutions will likely take centre stage in international logistics, enabling businesses to build resilience by reducing reliance on single trade routes or transport modes.

“In a year which is likely to see a continuation of volatility and instability, multimodal solutions, which combine road, sea and air transport, offer a more malleable logistics method to help businesses navigate disruptions more effectively, while also minimising delays. This is reinforced by their ability to optimise costs by balancing speed and affordability – which is especially poignant given that businesses are currently looking to cut costs at every opportunity.”

Although market volatility is likely to remain a constant in 2025, Aramex UK also believes that this year still presents an exciting opportunity for British businesses to break into new markets within the international arena.

Last year, high-street bank giant Santander highlighted that over 52% of UK businesses believed trading overseas was a growth driver with 39% of companies considering expanding abroad within the next three years, up from 17% the year before.

Despite an uncertain economic future, the majority of UK businesses also expect a positive start to 2025 and believe that their turnover will increase, according to a Lloyds bank survey.

Umar continued: “This year we are confident that businesses will look to extend their reach beyond domestic borders in order to identify new commercial opportunities and drive growth.

“The Middle East and North Africa, for example, continues to offer a wealth of opportunities, with strong demand for British goods and services, a growing digital economy, and significant investment in infrastructure and trade. As companies look to diversify their customer base, we expect these markets to gain increasing traction over the next 12 months and beyond.

“There’s clearly a strong appetite in the private sector for international trade, but success will depend on having the right partnerships and infrastructure in place to support growth. In particular, getting the logistics aspect of their operation right will be crucial this year, especially for businesses which will look to navigate an increasingly complex global trade environment for the first time.”

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