One thing’s for certain…you’ll never be certain
Think of ‘great’ leaders and their most iconic moments, and they are likely to give the impression of one thing: certainty. Winston Churchill’s ‘we shall fight them on the beaches’ speech may not have lodged in the nation’s brain for 80 years had he said: ‘we might surrender, I’m not really sure’. The same goes for Martin Luther King Jr’s ‘I have a dream’ speech, and Steve Jobs’ assertion the iPhone would ‘reinvent the phone’.
These examples might go some way to explaining why we expect those in charge to know what they are doing at all times, to lead us into battle (or the boardroom equivalent) with confidence, poise, a cunning plan, and – most of all – certainty. But they were probably far less sure than they would admit, because the irony is uncertainty is a certainty in business (and life).
The human need for certainty
When complex challenges and differing approaches arise, it falls to ‘the leader’ to decide. With the weight of expectation upon them, leaders feel pressured to make swift calls and to be sure of the outcome of each option. They may believe there is a ‘right’ decision which will lead to a perfect outcome (labelled the ‘myth of flexibility’ by Cole & Higgins); or perhaps they try to emulate their own business heroes’ confidence and decisiveness under pressure.
Nervous system and stress responses kick in, disrupting the careful internal balance of their brain, fuelling anxiety. If they can respond effectively to the challenge, as De Berker et al found in their research, stress and anxiety will reduce. This is why there is such a personal drive to find an answer, as well as a professional one.
Is taking the wrong turn better than staying still?
It can even seem like doing something is more important than what is actually done, a concept Professor Rob Briner termed ‘management theatre’.
In the rush to solve a problem, the pressure for immediate action means pointing the organisational vehicle in one direction and flooring the accelerator feels much less risky than considering all of the options before setting off. Occasionally, by sheer luck, driving off at speed gets us where we need to be (even by way of a wrong turn or two).
But, even allowing for the discomfort of taking a pause before deciding, we may never be certain of the ‘right’ choice. External factors can influence the outcome, and cash flow, staff departures and markets shifting can affect even the best-laid business plans.
Uncomfortable uncertainty
While certainty among business leaders is comparatively under researched, a study by the University of Oxford Saïd Business School and Heidrick & Struggles reported 71% of CEOs admitted to experiencing doubt when making decisions.
Perhaps the other 29% have found a secret formula which eradicates all traces of that very human trait of uncertainty… a silver bullet no less. Or perhaps they have simply become so enamoured with the fallacy of infallibility, they’re unable to admit to the niggling voice whispering in their ear: ‘maybe I’m wrong’.
Like it or not, that voice may never leave. We can attempt to quiet it by acquiring knowledge, expertise, confidence and developing our leadership practice. But uncertainty is not a fault, it is data, and a fundamental part of human experience: it serves a purpose, if we pay attention to it and act wisely in response. And that you can be certain of…
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