Arm Holdings has become the UK’s leading semiconductor business, with NVIDIA buying a $147.3 million stake in February this year, so Hauser knows a thing or two about spotting an opportunity.

Today, Hauser, who has been running Amadeus Capital Partners with co-founder Ann Glover since 1997, sees a similar trajectory in quantum computing today, describing it as “the most exciting yet risky investment” in his decades-long career. It’s easy to see why. Public funding for quantum technology has already surpassed $42 billion globally, with McKinsey forecasting an economic impact of $2 trillion by 2035.

The promise of optimising datacentres, boosting drug discovery, logistics and transport management, as well as enabling a new level of secure communications has sparked a mini gold rush over the past few years. But with immense technical and financial challenges still ahead, quantum computing sits at a crossroads leaving many an analyst and even some VCs wondering if this really is a backable leap into the future or whether in fact it is a black hole for cash?

One of the problems is perception. Typically, the quantum computer always seems to be about ten years away and yet there are working examples today. Technology breakthroughs are occurring on a regular basis and while today’s machines cannot hold a light against the flexibility and ubiquity of modern PCs, these are important moments for the industry.

“I see a lot of companies really striving for massive scale, perfect quantum computers,” says Richard Murray, CEO and Founder of University of Oxford spinout ORCA Computing. “My technical guys would love us to do that but I believe that if you leave it until then, it’s too late. Technology has inertia to it, so just being much more immediate with how we do things is good for the business.”

ORCA has already completed a number of commercial deals and Murray hints at five more installation deals in the pipeline.

“At the end of the day, we are a commercial organisation,” says Murray. “I mean, we also see other companies who are not really commercial enough and lots of companies formed from just academics, and still carrying on as a research activity. As a startup, you have got to make sure that at the end of it, you’ve got something strong enough to compete. I feel like I know what it takes to be successful as a deeptech company. It’s very simple. You have just got to sell things.”

One deal earlier this year certainly raised a few eyebrows, when the Australian government announced it would invest Aus$1bn in PSI Quantum (founded in Bristol but now based in Palo Alto, California), to develop quantum computers. There is talk of the new incoming government taking another look at this but what it does do is raise the profile and potential of quantum as an investable technology.

Back in July, Alex Keesling, Founder of US-based QuEra, told BI Foresight that looking into the future of quantum is “a little bit like trying to predict the impact of the internet on humanity in the early 1990s. The reality is that once the technology is out there, there’s a lot of things that we’re not even thinking about, that will happen.”

And that’s the point. There is always going to be an element of risk and uncertainty but also a profound sense of FOMO. VCs like to spread bet of course but most deep tech investors will have looked at or be looking at quantum startups as something more than a punt. You only have to look at the money being poured into quantum by the likes of IBM, Google and AWS to realise this is going to be serious business.

To that end, QuEra has already been working with AWS’s Braket cloud-based quantum computing service, which has seen a number of businesses pay for time on its Aquila machine. The likes of Morgan, BMW, Airbus, and BP are just some of the businesses exploring what they can do with a quantum machine, while QuEra also recently teamed-up with Moody’s to try and improve storm predictions and assess potential economic impacts on regions using quantum algorithms.

“Stop being a scientist and become an entrepreneur,” says Francesco Ricciuti associate at VC Runa Capital. “Technology is important but technology is useless if nobody buys it, or if nobody can actually use it. So you have to think about products. You have to think about markets.”

This was certainly the common feeling running through a recent UK Innovate event in London’s Business Design Centre. This may be the last year the UK National Quantum Technologies Showcase is held in Islington if the snaking queue along Upper Street is anything to go by. It certainly surprised a few people.

Among the products on show was an eye-catching mobile brain scanner developed using quantum sensors from Cerca Magnetics, a partnership between the University of Nottingham and Magnetic Shields. A beneficiary of the Quantum Catalyst Fund, Cerca Magnetics, like startups such as MoniRail, Phasecraft, and Delta.g has seen the value of public and private funding working in combination.

“We’ve put in all the right mechanisms to support really innovative, relatively senior people,” explains Sir Peter Knight, an Emeritus Professor in the department of physics at Imperial College London and a driving force behind the UK’s quantum industry. “But companies are going to need technicians and engineers who understand why quantum is valuable to them.”

Knight advocates for government incentives that support apprenticeship schemes, cross-sector training and educational programmes beyond traditional PhD tracks. These initiatives would provide the technical skills required to transition quantum innovations from research to commercial products, ultimately strengthening the UK’s quantum ecosystem.

And that is the point. There is already considerable momentum. There is a ‘when’ not ‘if’ attitude that makes this all very compelling. It has been compared to the early days of mainframe computing when large rooms were required to house machines. In fact, that is probably not quite right given the speed with which we may start to see breakthroughs in machine speeds and the pursuit of fault tolerance, something which we take for granted in every day PCs.

To that end, most quantum startups understand the need for balance between innovation and commercialisation. It’s a delicate act but one with potential rewards. Deep tech VCs are betting on quantum to deliver its ‘ChatGPT moment sooner than many might expect, a moment that could redefine industries and cement quantum computing as the next great leap in technology innovation.

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