The former Harvard team, which included a Nobel Prize-affiliated physicist and legend of nuclear non-proliferation, had incredible experience running crisis simulations, bringing together admirals, generals and ambassadors for tabletop war games. Their exercises even anticipated Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.  But it wasn’t fast enough to prevent the war. They needed to take things to the next level with AI.

The New York startup’s goal was ambitious: Use technology to foresee the next conflict and try to prevent it before it exploded into war. They wanted to take their offline process online with AI, running thousands of simulations a day instead of dozens a year.

That's when we explored the question that changed everything: could they also do this for companies?

They paused. The founders quickly realised that government customers were just one piece of the puzzle.  They could use the very same AI platform to help financial institutions instantly understand the impact of geopolitical events. Rather than waiting around for research notes, expert opinions, or TV pundits, Anadyr’s customers could immediately see the changing probabilities and impact of events on their investments around the world.  Anadyr could also enable companies like NVIDIA to navigate their competitive landscape (whether dealing with traditional rivals like Intel and AMD, customer-partners like Microsoft or emerging threats like DeepSeek from China).

This approach illustrates the core opportunity in peace tech: how many companies are already building technology that could prevent conflicts and also become successful, for-profit startups – and just don't realise it yet.

A $19 trillion opportunity

The opportunity is massive. Violent conflict costs the global economy $19 trillion annually. It's not just a humanitarian crisis, but a market failure of extraordinary scale. While hundreds of companies compete in the crowded defencetech space, peace tech represents a blue ocean with minimal competition and vast potential. As climate tech and spacetech have grown from millions to billions, peace tech appears positioned for similar growth.

The timing is critical. Recent geopolitical tensions have both governments and private sector companies scrambling to get the next generation of conflict-prevention tools. What seemed like a niche market five years ago now represents a strategic imperative.

For entrepreneurs, the question is whether they'll design tools that prevent wars or fight them.

Three paths to peace tech

Sometimes entrepreneurs are already doing it – building technology specifically designed to prevent conflict. These purpose-driven founders often struggle with funding and market positioning, but they're building the core of the peace tech ecosystem.

More often, there's a company out there that does not yet think of itself as a peace tech startup. They're building software or AI for commercial use. When we describe how they could apply their technology not just to companies but also to countries and geopolitics, their eyes light up. Usually, they've never even considered this possibility. They didn't know peace tech was even a thing.

The third way happens when someone is already working on peace and conflict, trying to make the world less violent, but they're thinking nonprofit. They may not realise they have a for-profit business model in the private sector. We show them how they could sell their expertise to companies and generate recurring revenue: the best source of funding (far better than grants or donations). Corporate customers will pay good money for solutions they love.

How the transformation works

The transformation follows a predictable pattern. It starts with asking the right questions about existing technology, then expands to new applications, and finally evolves into a sustainable business model serving both sectors.

Here are a few ways that shift plays out in practice:

• The simple applications: start with technologies that translate directly. Risk-management software already visualises threats and opportunities for multinational corporations. The same visualisation can map stakeholder perspectives in peace negotiations, helping diplomats understand what each side values and where common ground exists
• The creative pivots: more complex transformations require reimagining use cases. Blockchain companies tracking cross-border payments can pivot to ensuring transparency in post-conflict reconstruction funds. Drone platforms surveying terrain for commercial purposes can help redraw contested borders with precision, preventing decades of conflict over ambiguous boundaries
• The foundational shifts: the most ambitious transformations address root causes. Social-media platforms can prioritise social cohesion over engagement-driven controversy. AI negotiation tools, like Didi AI, can indicate optimal timing for productive talks, working equally well for corporate mergers and diplomatic breakthroughs

Beyond the obvious applications

The applications extend to unexpected areas. Misinformation and disinformation fuel violent conflict, making startups that combat false information natural peace tech candidates. Supply chain companies create economic incentives for stability (businesses suffer when ships can't navigate disrupted trade routes). We've invested in Virginia-based Map Collective, which works in this space.

Even climate tech contributes to peace by addressing one of conflict's underlying drivers. California-based Polis’s platform demonstrated in Taiwan how collective action tools can build consensus rather than deepen divisions.

The questions any company should ask form a simple diagnostic:

• Could our technology reduce conflict between parties?
• Could it help organisations or countries find common ground?
• Could it make negotiations more effective or transparent?
• Could it help people understand different perspectives?
• Could it address a root cause of instability or mistrust?

If you’re a founder and you answered yes to any of these, you may have accidentally built peace tech potential into your company.

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