However, some of the most recent trends tipped to revolutionise the technological world have so far fallen flat. The Metaverse is yet to redefine society as we know it – 30% of UK residents still have no clue what the platform’s purpose actually is – and NFTs and crypto crashed spectacularly throughout 2022, with investors in both seeing profitability quickly fall.

But how can you tell which technologies have potential, and which don’t? Key to this process is learning to take any hype with a pinch of salt, and come to your own conclusions as a tech leader.

First doesn’t always mean best

Pioneering a trend does not guarantee success. Instead, whoever first understands what users really want and delivers a service that truly meets their needs will reap the rewards. Therefore, businesses must not rush their entry into a developing market and should instead fine-tune any new offering and ensure that there is demand for it, to avoid becoming the latest headstone in the graveyard of supposed trailblazers.

I spoke to Espen Sande Larsen, Senior Vice President of Technology Exploration at DNB, about this, and he said: “Investing in a growth stage market is a risk and bankrolling early adopters can backfire, even if the market ends up taking off. Take the social media industry, which has grown exponentially since its early stages but quickly ousted the first entrants as market leaders – MySpace and Friendster have been all but dead and buried for years.

“The early adopters are rarely the winners and this is likely to be the case for Web3 and the cryptocurrencies that will drive its growth. Don’t be surprised to see Bitcoin suffer the same fate as social media’s first incumbents, particularly considering there is only a finite amount available to mine. If a digital currency that is just as trustworthy as Bitcoin comes along, but is more convenient and efficient, expect users to flock to this alternative.”

Do your due diligence

Tech leaders shouldn’t view an emerging trend as the next big thing simply because their peers believe that it will be. Instead, it is essential they conduct their own research and form their own opinions to ensure sensible choices are made when investing time or money in new technology.

Sande Larsen said: “There are a myriad of resources available – all of which are far more reliable than word of mouth – that can be leveraged to shed light on emerging trends and outline whether these are worth serious consideration. If a topic piques someone’s interest, they should dig up all the journal articles, podcasts and expert insight they can find to become a thought leader on the subject in their own right.

“It is prudent to learn, observe and experiment with the latest trends, but this should be done with restraint. It is when individuals are reckless or overindulge that problems arise, and this sort of behaviour often incurs considerable financial damage. Certainty is a precious commodity that can only be gained through thorough research, so business decision-makers need to earn the right to invest in new tech by spending time educating themselves.

“Early adoption can yield exceptional returns, but companies should confirm the concept they are exploring aligns closely with their target market before throwing money at an unproven asset.”

Don’t engage in the debate

People tend to revel in controversy, often taking great pleasure in backing a new trend with a fleet of detractors in the hopes of proving the naysayers wrong. However, the reality is that intense debate should set alarm bells ringing, as this means that the concept is still in a phase of self-discovery and growth.

Sande Larsen said: “Tech leaders can draw parallels with the scientific community when considering their approach to emerging trends: when there are masses of papers, research and debate on a topic, it is safe to assume that the central idea is not yet fully formed. It is only once all the experiments have taken place and the main conclusions have been drawn that the arguments tend to cease; the same is true for technology.

“The Metaverse is a prime example of an idea that is yet to be fully realised, and what Meta is currently building toward is not necessarily what the market wants – present users are far more likely to get behind an interactive gaming experience than a virtual boardroom. Business decision-makers should wait until the Metaverse has established its identity and has a clear roadmap for its future before fulling integrating this tech into everyday operations.”

Showing this type of restraint and waiting until a topic isn’t quite so hotly contested is a good rule of thumb when evaluating whether to invest in an up-and-coming sector.

Be a tech leader, not a follower

Genuine tech leaders don’t jump on a trend because everyone else is doing the same. They conduct thorough research, are patient and wait until the space has fully manifested itself before entering or investing in a marketplace. Hype can spread like wildfire, but the real skill lies in blocking out the white noise and backing the tech that will best resonate with a product’s target audience.