October was a month of scaling: early signals turned into structure, and new directions began to take shape across sectors and geographies. The market seemed to be settling into its next form – capital flows aligning, familiar patterns gaining weight, and new kinds of coordination emerging across investors and regions.

This monthly examination will look at both sides of October’s evolutions. We explore how last quarter’s signals have evolved into systems that may indicate what future movements are already in formation.

Validation phase: early signals now scale

To be clear, October didn’t redraw any maps. What it did was trace over lines in much thicker ink. All those summer dynamics, such as blended capital flows, widening deal polarisation, and defence as a steady vertical, dominated the marketplace. What changed in October is how they solidified.

The mixed-capital model proves durable

We first made notes about the convergence of public, private, and corporate capital funding in the mid-year. Those signals have only expanded from a few isolated co-investments to a new emerging norm for European financing.

France remained the best testing ground for mixed capital. Examples like Dracula Technologies (€30 million) found sourcing through Banque des Territoires, MGI Digital, and the EIC Fund. Another case was Scintil Photonics (€50 million) and Adcytherix (€105 million) using Bpifrance, EIC, and industrial LPs.

In Spain, the mixed-capital model included 011h (€20 million) and FuVeX (€3.2 million), utilising state innovation funding, as well as private backers. Even TRIBBU (€2 million) found resources from Iberdrola and Grupo Ruiz. Then there was Return in the Netherlands (€300 million) that used a mixture of pension funds acting in late-growth roles. The list could go on, but the direction is clear. Blended capital is scaling and playing a significant role in European funding.

Polarised capital leads to blurred stages

Can you still call it venture capital when a “round” results in over €1.7 billion? Months ago, we flagged a split that has now exaggerated to the almost absurd realm of finance. Europe’s venture market seems to be turning into a barbell with record-breaking rounds at the top of a set, a flood of micro-seeds at the bottom, and only a little line of space in between.

For example, at one pole of the spectrum, you have late-stage rounds reaching near public scale through Mistral AI (€1.7 billion), Nscale (€940 million), Tubulis (€308 million), NanoPhoria (€83.5 million), and Trogenix (€80 million). Looking at the other end, you get a collection of €0.5 million to €5 million seed rounds through Afori, BiMA, DevAlly, Omnia, QFX, and FuVeX.

Yet, when you look at the territory in between these extremes, you find a quieter landscape of €10 million to €40 million. It isn’t empty of stages, but much thinner compared to Series A and Series B. The map hasn’t necessarily broken, but it has stretched far enough that labelling these stages is becoming increasingly challenging.

How October shaped defence spending

A few months ago, defence funding seemed more an exception to the rule than a norm. There were occasional grants and scattered dual-use experiments, but investors, for the most part, kept their distance. October marked a shift in both scale and tone with the launch of Bpifrance Défense’s €300 million Fund. That provided a national vehicle to build and manage a new venture instrument using clear LPs, return logic, and targeted sectors.

Around these new instruments, private capital started to fill in the gaps in the stack. SalesPatriot in Poland (€4.2 million) developed procurement software for the defence and aerospace industries to support their systems. Filigran in France (€49 million) raised growth-stage funding for groundbreaking cyber-intelligence that American (FBI) and EU bodies purchased. There are also TITAN4 in Italy (€4 million) and Energy Robotics in Germany (€11.5 million), adding space and autonomy layers to defence markets.

All these activities confirm what we at Zubr Capital already flagged months ago. Defence is no longer taboo for investors. It is evolving into a structured asset class with its own funds, syndicates, and risk management logic. Instead of being exclusive to policymakers and governments, it is behaving like other growth markets, offering structured, repeatable, and investable opportunities.

Southern and Eastern Europe cross the scaling threshold

October proved that the once-considered experiments in the southern and eastern parts of Europe are now technically sound and built for scale. NanoPhoria in Italy (€83.5 million, Series A) closed one of the biggest rounds backed by XGEN, Sofinnova, and CDP VC. That signals Southern Europe has the same deeptech opportunities as France or Germany. Plenty of scale-minded deals followed, including the previously mentioned TITAN4 for satellite intelligence, FuVeX for industrial drone deployment, and dotLumen in Romania (€11 million) for autonomous urban delivery.

Those traditional geographical lines continued to blur in the consumer and fintech sectors. Resistant AI in Czechia (€21 million, Series B) and Acoru in Spain (€10 million, Series A) now operate at a global infrastructure scale. Holi in Poland (€3 million) and Yaga in Estonia (€4 million) expanded into emerging EU and MENA sectors.

On the capital side of the equation, Maia Ventures in Italy (€55 million) brought EIF and CDP VC together to establish a more permanent infrastructure in a home-grown AgriFoodTech fund. We’ve already seen these patterns mature, but October is where the pattern solidified. The region is starting to scale on its own terms and not as a one-off.

The October emergence phase

More startups learn Government-speak

One quiet shift became much more visible during October’s funding rounds. It appears that there is a growing trend among startups to incorporate government and corporate procurement from the outset. Instead of chasing funding, they’re learning to win lucrative contracts by designing businesses for compliance, integration, and reliability.

We’ve mentioned SalesPatriot in Poland, Dracula Technologies in France, TITAN4 in Italy, and FuVeX in Spain. However, there are also TRIBBU in Spain (€2 million+) and Clevergy (€3.2 million), which focus on sustainability and energy SaaS. Immaterial in the UK (€15.4 million), aevoloop in Germany (€8 million), Energy Robotics, and Return all adopt the same government-speak blueprint. They’re sourcing products for institutional partners, rather than open markets. That opens a new growth lane that is predictable and fast to validate.

Is co-development replacing buyouts?

Traditional M&A meant more control. Today, that seems more like cooperation. October demonstrated that corporate is stepping in, but not to buy. They are helping build by taking minority stakes, co-developing products, and embedding startups in crucial supply chains.

Immaterial brought in SLB, Finindus, and Nokia Ventures to quickly scale its decarbonisation materials. Dracula Technologies collaborated with Banque des Territoires and MGI Digital to integrate energy-harvesting technology. In pharma, Eli Lilly joined Trogenix’s €80 million round as a “co-developer” instead of a pure acquisition. Even NanoPhoria in Italy blended institutional and industrial capital based on the same idea of collaboration instead of buyouts.

The buyout instinct feels a lot softer now. It seems less about control and more about collaboration when you see corporations using equity as a partnership's currency, as in the case of Iberdrola and Grupo Ruiz backing TRIBBU in its commuting platform. Things feel different. APG’s €300 million minority stake in Return transformed infrastructure into shared equity, and Quivo (€5.2 million) partnered with Qatar’s GWC to expand logistics. Corporate capital now tends to partner instead of acquire.

Private rounds now include liquidity

One small, but telling shift we should mention is that European founders are taking some value off the table without stepping away. Secondary sales that were once rare outside of late exits are quietly entering earlier rounds.

Steven.com in the UK has a €365 million valuation because of existing backers (a setup that includes partial cash outs). Refurbed in Austria (€50 million) and CoMind in the UK (€51 million) closed follow-on rounds with repeat investors. Even larger finances like Tubulis in Germany (€308 million) and Formalize in Denmark (€30 million) indicated the same pattern of insiders buying from insiders.

This subtle change is still “beneath the surface,” but could lengthen the company's lifespan while also putting less pressure on founders to sell, resulting in more room to grow.

Women’s health startups are finally funded to scale

The “femtech” sector of health innovation has consistently been underfunded. The niche is rich in ideas, but unfortunately, it is poor in capital. October has finally broken down that barrier, with women’s health startups raising rounds that resemble growth plays, not pilots.

SheMed in the UK (€43 million) closed one of Europe’s largest women’s-health rounds, expanding its personalised, data-driven platform for women’s metabolic and hormonal wellness. Unfabled in the UK (€1.4 million) secured fresh capital to grow its marketplace for menstrual, fertility, and menopause products. Woom in Spain (acquired by Apricity) continued integrating its fertility-tracking expertise into a broader reproductive-care ecosystem. There is a perception shift that women’s health is finally crossing from a place of advocacy to an established healthcare vertical. Yes, the numbers are still modest, but the changing framing means investors must treat the category as viable, rather than just a cause.

What October means for investors and founders

The month of October clearly signals a shift in European venture from a state of expansion to one of optimisation. The edge now lies in orchestration. Companies that understand how to combine public, corporate, and private money into repeatable stacks are worth a second look. Spotting founders who can operate within that mixed logic is also interesting. Investors must consider liquidity and co-development as the norm, the more risk circulates and partnerships compound.

For founders, the lesson is equally clear. Future growth is more about fitting into hybrid procurement systems, capital structures, and collaborative value chains. Looking forward, the advantage will belong to those who can speak with fluency in both venture and institutional realms. It will be for those who are compliant enough for contracts, yet bold enough for the market.

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