London SME growth forecasts dampened by tariff concerns and tax rises
Small businesses in London are the most worried in the UK (78%) about current economic instability including US tariffs and the prospect of tax rises later in the year – according to new research out this week from Novuna Business Finance.
Preliminary findings from the latest quarterly instalment of Novuna’s Business Barometer study (released next week), reveal that small business owners in the Capital are the most worried in the UK about the how US tariffs on the UK will directly impact their business and supply chain (19%) – an immediate reaction from market research conducted just 24 hours after the US tariffs on the UK were announced.
Reflecting the international outlook of many businesses in the Capital, London small businesses are also most fearful of how tariffs on the EU (12%) or on Canada, Mexico China and Japan (9%) would also have an adverse ripple-effect on their UK businesses and supply chains. Beyond tariffs, 48% of London small businesses expressed concern over prospect of current international instability resulting in UK tax rises in the coming months. A further 38% of London business owners were concerned about how current geo-political events would weaken already fragile consumer confidence, resulting in customers spending less money in the months ahead (38%).
These findings come at a time when the percentage of London small businesses forecasting short-term growth for the three months to June has risen (48%), following a significant dip in Q1 2025 (39%).
Joanna Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance comments: “Whilst London small business outlook in the short-term appears to be positive, the seriousness of business owner concerns over tariffs, the prospect of tax rises later this year and weakening consumer confidence are major causes of concern for the longer-term. London is very much the weathervane for small business outlook in the UK, because growth outlook has consistently been stronger in the Capital than anywhere else in the UK. So when London small businesses worry, we should all sit up and listen.”
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