At a time when organisations are under increasing pressure to innovate faster, Expected Value introduces a bold new model for assessing innovation performance. It moves beyond outdated activity metrics such as idea counts or engagement levels, and introduces the Expected Value (xV) framework, a practical and data-informed approach to managing innovation portfolios.

“Virtually every organisation in the world describes itself as ‘innovative’ but it’s now so commonplace that it’s become almost meaningless,” said Hill. “But innovation itself is not broken, the way we measure it is. We’ve become obsessed with movement, such as hackathons, idea portals, pilot projects, but rarely ask if any of it is moving the business forward. Expected Value is a system designed to change that.”

The World Intellectual Property Organization has reported that global R&D in real terms has nearly tripled since 2,000, to more $2.75 trillion in 2023. Broader innovation investment is even greater, so it’s imperative to assign value to innovation programmes.

The xV framework uses four key variables to measure and manage innovation:

• Confidence – how likely the innovation is to succeed
• Estimated value – the potential impact if successful
• Time sensitivity – how urgent or time-bound the opportunity is
• Strategic fit - the alignment with capabilities, advantages, and direction

By combining these into a dynamic performance score, the xV model allows organisations to prioritise innovation projects more effectively, link innovation performance to enterprise value, and create a shared language between innovation leaders, finance teams, and the C-suite.

The book introduces a set of practical tools that include how to assess whether an idea is aligned to strategy and ambition, and how to evaluate the extent to which innovation contributes to future revenue. These help businesses avoid ‘innovation theatre’ and instead build high-performing, value-driven innovation cultures.

The xV framework is already being piloted with leading public and private sector organisations in the US, UK, Europe, LatAm, China, and Middle East.

“Without value and measurement, innovation is doomed,” said Hill. “The world desperately needs more genuine innovation, and this framework finally adds the substance and tangible measurement required to drive innovation programmes to reach their full potential.”

Simon Hill is the Founder and CEO of Wazoku. Its platform is used by organisations including NASA, the UK Ministry of Defence and the Executive Council of Dubai to crowdsource and manage innovation at scale.

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