Globalisation was theorised to foster an era where territorial invasions would become increasingly rare; an ‘End of History’ age. However, this vision has not materialised. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East and tensions in the South China Sea illustrate that territorial warfare remains a latent risk to the geopolitical order.

Although much of the focus is on the physical impact of conflict, there are often secondary consequences felt locally. These consequences can have a big impact on the business community as it navigates the economic turbulence created by the shifting geopolitical landscape.

Risks on the radar

Supply chain disruption, increased protectionism and volatile commodity prices are the primary issues linked to geopolitical instability for risk and security managers, as outlined in the Healix Risk Radar Report for 2025. Geopolitics overtook extreme weather as the biggest risk concern for businesses as they looked to the year ahead. While the risks mentioned here may not resemble traditional tools of statecraft, they do represent secondary consequences of conflict and geopolitical tensions.

For example, the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered global energy spikes as nations quickly divested from Russian energy sources. It also created supply chain issues as countries reliant on Russian energy supplies and distribution grappled with the consequences of sanctions upon Russian entities.

Elsewhere, we are seeing emerging economies and global players like India and Mexico making an impact on the global economy. Efficiency, sustainability and stability are increasingly being prioritised over cost reduction. Consequently, organisations are leaning towards “friend-shoring” or “near-shoring”, favouring supply chains with either geopolitical allies or localised networks of buyers, suppliers or manufacturers.

For the business world, the consequences involve businesses re-evaluating supply chains to ensure business continuity, supply chain stability, guarantee manufacturing or service constancy and ultimately, stay in business. This action taken by businesses became known as the ‘Great Rewiring’.

How should businesses ensure business continuity in a volatile geopolitical climate?

Risk outlook – conduct geopolitical risk analysis

Although forecasting cannot predict every eventuality, an informed and structured approach towards risk mitigation can identify, monitor and anticipate geopolitical shifts. By investing in the necessary risk management expertise, business leaders can instil confidence when it comes to futureproofing – not only at Board level, but for employees as well.

Build a resilient team

Having a team that is prepared and agile is vital for risk resilience. And this often starts by nurturing a culture of adaptability, trust, and proactive problem-solving.

Regular training in risk management strategies and scenario planning can equip the team with the tools to respond effectively to uncertainties. Establish clear roles and responsibilities while maintaining flexibility, allowing the team to pivot when circumstances change.

Encourage open communication to ensure all members feel empowered to share insights, voice concerns, and propose solutions.

Build flexibility in supply chains

Building flexibility within supply chains helps to navigate disruptions caused by geopolitics or major incidents. Cultivating a multi-faceted approach prevents an over reliance on a single supplier or region. 

Invest in advanced data analytics and supply chain visibility tools to monitor global trends and detect potential risks in real-time. Establishing regional distribution centres and fostering relationships with local suppliers can reduce dependency on cross-border logistics. Incorporate contingency planning into supply chain operations, including maintaining safety stock and developing rapid response protocols for unexpected events.

Conclusion

Finally, as the ties that bind the global community slacken, the boundaries between international policy and local impact are blurring, making it crucial to explore how geopolitical trends affect industries across the globe. By making geopolitical risk analysis a strategic pillar, organisations can anticipate what’s ahead, invest in the training needed to prepare and protect against potential disruption, ensure the safety of employees and secure continued business growth. 

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