Global mergers and acquisitions face trade tensions and AI transformation

Global law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, in collaboration with Mergermarket, has released the third edition of its annual Global M&A trends and risks report, examining the trends shaping dealmaking around the world and including a survey of 200 top-level executives that took place across Q1 and Q2 of this year.

Key findings include:

  • New era of volatility unsettles dealmakers: when surveyed in Q1 2025, 53% of respondents expected their own organisation’s appetite for M&A to increase in 2025 compared to last year. However, the market turmoil caused by “reciprocal tariff” announcements impacted sentiment. In response to a follow-up question on this subject, more than two-thirds of respondents said the escalation in trade tensions had caused their appetite for M&A to decrease
  • Popularity of deal insurance set to soar: overall, nearly 65% of respondents expect the use of representations and warranties insurance (RWI) to increase in 2025 compared to 2024, including 37% who expect that increase to be significant (up from 26% in our previous study). This trend is observable in every market around the world, particularly in the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia, with more than 45% of respondents in both regions forecasting a significant increase in the use of RWI
  • Dealmakers move quickly to integrate AI: fifty-one percent have acquired an AI business, with respondents applying the technology to various parts of their M&A processes, from deal sourcing to due diligence. Moreover, 46% report that they are looking to acquire an AI business in the near term. In our previous 2024 study, just 33% of respondents said they were looking to acquire an AI business
  • Strategic buyers focus on domestic targets: respondents expect that domestic strategic buyers will come to the fore as the most active acquirers in 2025. This is particularly pronounced in emerging markets, including Latin America (74%), Africa (61%), and South and Southeast Asia (57%)
  • Private credit helps to fill financing gap: at the global level, 35% of respondents expect it to become more difficult to secure M&A-related financing in 2025 compared with 2024. Overall, a quarter of respondents believe private credit will be the single most important form of financing to be employed in the market over the next two years for M&A deals. Respondents agree that this financing type is gaining momentum across Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia
  • Private equity ready to put dry powder to work: forty-four percent of survey participants expect domestic private equity buyers to be among the most active types of acquirers in deal markets in 2025. Their presence will be felt across all markets, according to our respondents, with a particular emphasis on South and Southeast Asia (49%). Their international PE peers, meanwhile, are expected to be especially active in neighbouring East Asia (41%) as well as Europe (also 4%) and Australia and New Zealand (43%)

Raj Karia, Norton Rose Fulbright’s Global Head of Corporate, M&A and Securities, said: “We’re seeing a clear shift in how clients approach M&A, with a move towards more deliberate and strategic planning. This year’s report captures that evolution, with trade tensions, financing pressures and regulatory scrutiny all influencing how deals are structured and executed.”

The survey respondents included 100 executives from multinational corporations as well as 50 from large private equity firms and 50 from major investment banks, all of whom have participated in M&A across multiple regions and sectors over the past two years. Results were analysed by Mergermarket and responses were anonymised and presented in the aggregate.

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